Bird Vendor, Shanghai 10/2008

An article in this morning’s LA Times confirms that the H5N1 virus (bird flu) has resurfaced in Hong Kong’s poultry, following other recent outbreaks in Egypt, Cambodia, and Indonesia.  While the virus appears to be contained, consider the historical lessons brought by the influenza epidemic of 1918, which appeared without warning and killed an estimated 50 million people.  When we take into account the global nature of today’s business climate and the ease in which germs pass between the tightly-spaced cubicles most of us are confined to these days, the potential of this virus gets a bit scary.

In 2005, I had been retained by Time Inc. to create a comprehensive pandemic crisis management plan for use at both their headquarters in New York City and satellite branches around the world.  My prior knowledge of this subject was minimal at best, save for the 2002 panic I’d lived through in China on account of another deadly disease scare- SARS.  Needless to say, my first few weeks of H5N1 research left me paralyzed with the dread of what could potentially occur if about three dozen factors aligned.  I had a difficult time getting to sleep at night and began imploring my family and friends to supply their homes with N95 masks, sanitizer, and Tamiflu.  Thankully, my paranoia lifted quite early into my newfound career as a pandemic researcher when I began to weigh the potential of viral transmission in correlation with the precautions that had already been implemented by both international bodies and local agencies within those areas already affected.

Should midsize and large corporate entities have documented precautionary methods and equipment in place NOW?  Absolutely.  Should struggling businesses empty their pocketbooks to prevent a bird flu outbreak in their office?  No way.  While stocks of biopharm companies have soared from this new breed of hysteria both through private industry and Uncle Sam, they have failed to advertise one particular fact, with good reason.  Current bird flu vaccines miss the mark for effectiveness by a long shot and it appears that H5N1 is already mutating to become resistant to certain drugs like Tamiflu.  Additionally, shelf life for these medications is relatively short- about 5 years.

So, what should companies do to protect themselves without breaking the bank?  Most importantly, a disaster contingency plan should be created and distributed to identify critical vs. non-critical employees and departments, telework procedures, and specific actions for each level of severity.  At least two professional coordinators in I.T. and security should be appointed to oversee this plan, in cooperation with either an in-house or external health practitioner.  N95 masks are relatively cheap; I recommend stockpiling these to ensure adequate protection of all employees and retained consultants for at least a two week period.  If your company already has a Tamiflu supply, check the expiration date.  New orders of Tamiflu should be made with caution- with its many side effects and questionable efficacy, it may not be worth the cost.  Instead, spend the money on an infrafred thermometer or two and definitely consider investing in upgraded telework capabilities for all employees.

And, as always, if you have a cough or fever, stay home!

Commentary Asia, BCP, bird flu, disaster recovery, disease, H5N1, Hong Kong, plans