Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma has predicted that China will become the world’s largest economy within the next decade. In an interview with The Australian, Ma stated that “in ten years’ time, China will be bigger than the US in GDP and a bigger source of imports than the US…the US is going to be more dependent on Chinese demand.” I tend to agree. In fact, since the launch of this blog (and well before that) I have been relatively forthcoming about four of my own related predictions:
1. China will catapult its way to global economic dominance, surpassing the US;
2. An overhaul in terms of US-China diplomatic relations is desperately needed to reflect today’s interdependent reality;
3. Corruption is and will continue to be the single largest impediment to China’s development overall;
4. More Americans need to learn Mandarin and understand China beyond what is printed in The New York Times.
And, while I’ve endeavored to support and explain the last three predictions in prior posts, I’ve never quite clarified why I think China is slated to quickly become the world’s largest economy beyond citing hard numbers. Here are a few “soft” reasons:

Infrastructure projects have traditionally been seen as a surefire way to stimulate a country’s economy, providing tens of thousands of jobs that simultaneously facilitate the building of new bridges, highways, railroads, and buildings, as well as the revenues which come from them. In China, we have seen entire cities erected in a matter of years; just look towards the east side of Huangpu River and into a former rice paddy that has become the spectacularly modern district of Pudong. If you think that’s impressive, consider the fact that China is slated to complete the world’s largest high-speed train system in the world by 2020 with a total allocation of an estimated $300 billion for the entire project. The US, on the other hand, has set aside $8 billion in the US stimulus plan for high speed rail development. Money aside, there’s another very significant issue. After Mao’s reign, the People’s Republic of China was left with a relatively blank slate. On the other hand, while the US as a developed nation had once been able to boast about its first-class transportation systems and glorious urban epicenters, much of its infrastructure dating back to a more promising time is now beginning to crumble (stand on nearly any subway platform in New York City and you’ll see what I mean). China has long understood that destruction and possibility often go hand in hand. Given recent examples of infrastructure projects like Boston’s Big Dig and even Amtrak’s Acela, we in the US have seen that, when it comes to infrastructure innovation, our past has a tendency to haunt us.

China’s population of 1.3 billion people had once mainly been viewed as a potential hindrance to stability and development. After all, how could a country feed so many mouths and would it even be possible for the natural environment to sustain itself under such an enormous weight? We have already seen the strains in multiple forms as well as some other less desirable consequences stemming from two generations of population control (such as the sex ratio imbalance). However, it is also evident that such a massive and highly migratory workforce better facilitates the realization of large-scale projects which have managed to awe the rest of the world for both their size and time to completion. Secondly, China’s manufacturing sector has recently seen a shift from one that mainly served its export-led economy to a model which better incorporates internal demand of consumption while remaining as a top global manufacturing and offshoring destination, thereby continuing to utilize China’s massive population of unskilled laborers as an engine for growth. Additionally, China has recognized the need to expand its pool of educated, highly-skilled workers significantly and  boost its contributions in the areas of science and technology, something that can undoubtedly be accomplished given the availability to cultivate future talent and fuel competitiveness as encouraged by government-led programs. Put simply, China is turning its population burden into an advantage and the potential power of 1.3 billion people to support this development process far exceeds numerical comprehension.

In education, US students lag far behind the rest of the world. Compare both performance, standards, and perceptions about the importance of school and it becomes clear that China’s future shines a brighter star in quantitative-based disciplines. And, when we think about the future in terms of what will move us forward globally, the answers are often found in math and science- whether for green technologies or next-generation transportation models or the internet or even space. In other words, many of tomorrow’s innovators will need to possess tangible and measurable skill sets not typically found in your average liberal arts curriculum but instead gained in biology labs, computer science classes or econometrics lectures. According to a report published in The Dallas News, “eight out of ten jobs in the future will require a background in math, science or technology, yet students in the United States currently fall behind their international peers in educational achievement. Out of 30 countries, the US recently finished well below average, falling to 25th in math and 21st in science.” At the top of the heap? China. Add this to the fact that 300 million Chinese are currently studying English while gaining some understanding of Western culture and history through curriculum, movies, online publications, social media and the thousands of expats that have settled in the larger cities looking for a better future (yes, a better future in China). How many Americans study Mandarin, on the other hand? Not many. Recent estimates show less than 50,000, although that number is starting to increase. What do Americans typically know about Chinese culture and history? Fortune cookies, rice paddies, chopsticks and Mao. We’re all members of a globalized, technology-based society. China’s definitely received the message. The US, on the other hand, appears to be wrestling with a system malfunction.

In asserting that China will become the world’s largest economic powerhouse within the next ten years, it is probably worth noting that this emergence is not synonymous with “political power” nor am I insinuating that China will “rule the world.” A multipolar global structure would not make such an arrangement possible anyway, which is where we are likely heading. Beyond numbers, there are many other reasons why China will be the world’s next great nation, and as a US citizen, I think a focus on fearing the inevitable rather than boosting US-China cooperation will be entirely detrimental to both sides. If anything, the possible reasons behind China’s success- such as the three mentioned above- may provide valuable lessons, deeper East-West connections and a healthy competitive spirit to secure America’s own future.

Do you think China will become the world’s largest economy within the next decade and if so, why? What will China’s growing political and economic power on a global scale mean for US-China relations? What might this shift mean for global business? For security and diplomacy? I’d love to hear your thoughts and opinions…

Commentary china, economy, globalization, Jun Ma, math, multipolar, population, science, U.S.

China’s intensifying crackdown on media cannot be disputed; in recent months the Great Firewall has impacted the ability to access information through outlets like Twitter and Facebook while China’s government has employed new tactics in an attempt to have some control over the news. And, with instances of unrest as seen in Xinjiang and Shishou, the corruption scandal in N@m1b1@, and the upcoming 60th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, one might expect to see further restrictions. Enter Malcolm Moore, Shanghai Correspondent for the Telegraph who has lately become one of the most recognized faces of foreign reporting in China. I linked up with Mr. Moore to discuss his transition from Italy to China, the impact of social media in disseminating the news, and a few particularly sensitive headlines that he’s familiar with. To learn more about what it’s like to be a foreign correspondent in China and why Mr. Moore is so darn good at what he does, read on…

You originally spent three years in Italy as the Telegraph’s Rome Correspondent before landing in China a year ago. Tell me a little bit about the transition process. Could you make some comparisons regarding the regulations, expectations and overall reporting environment in each country?
I think there are more similarities between Italy and China than people might initially assume. Both countries are filled with colorful stories, government chaos, and bizarre government regulations which everyone seems to ignore. And of course, there are a lot of Chinese in Italy; I think about 95 percent of the Chinese in Italy are from Wenzhou and they have gradually infiltrated the major centers- a lot of them are in Naples and outside Florence. In terms of culture shock, it wasn’t really huge. But, in terms of being a reporter, it was a difficult transition. I don’t speak Mandarin, although I’ve been studying two hours a day since I got here. In Italy, everyone has an opinion and wants to voice their opinion. It was very easy to get access to all sorts of people. If I wanted to do a story about the Neapolitan Mafia, I would just call the police in Naples, put on a bulletproof vest and storm some godfather’s house. Here in China, it’s been more difficult to get access and to get hold of even the low level officials. Having said that, in the year that I have been here, you can see it changing. I interviewed the President of China Construction Bank a few days ago and that was a remarkably simple process to set up and carry out.

Was moving to China a choice for you or an assignment? After spending a year there, how have you adjusted to the culture, customs and laws?
Myself and my wife-to-be were getting tired of Italy and we asked for a transfer. We had a choice of various places to go to and China really stood out for me because my grandfather was Chinese- from Fujian- and he studied in Shanghai in the 1940s. He then left Shanghai, moved to Singapore and set up a Shanghainese restaurant, which was a great success. But, he always held Shanghai close to his heart. So, for me it was a little bit about closing that circle and trying to find out more about my background. Learning Mandarin was a big deal for me. I have a lot of Chinese relatives that I haven’t been able to communicate with all my life. So, it was a real privilege to start learning the language.
In terms of comparative regulations between Italy and China, both countries have enormous bureaucracies. Both countries have enormous regulations. Neither country has a very good judicial system; Italian court cases take years and years to resolve. In both countries, nobody trusts the law. Both countries have thriving grey and black economies and in both countries, who you know is very important. I think the difference is that China is a developing country and is trying to reform its systems whereas Italy doesn’t really seem to be reform-minded.

Your reporting runs the gamut, from political unrest to government corruption to labor issues to the environment. Is there a particular focus that you’re most interested in covering and how do you decide which stories are worth chasing after?
My background is as a business reporter and I only became a foreign correspondent when I moved to Italy. When I was asked to come to Shanghai, my editor told me that he wanted more business stories. In the year that I’ve been here, I haven’t done any business stories at all! I am a bit like a magpie- anything that catches my attention I’ll go after. We have three people in China- two in Beijing and one in Shanghai- so it’s not a huge staff. I have a talk with our guys in Beijing in the morning and we split the work up between us. One of us is always on base to cover developments and we try to make it that the other person is traveling as much as possible. My biggest ambition is to travel for half the month and to write about what I find there, but the problem we have is finding space in the newspaper. We only have three pages of foreign news a day and our editors have to weigh the pros and cons about a China story against everything else that’s going on in the world. There’s usually some horrific plane crash or terrorist plot or something else that draws attention away from China.

According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, China is listed as one of the world’s ten worst places to be a journalist and cites it as the country with the highest number of journalists currently imprisoned. What steps do you take to minimize your own risk during each assignment?
Well, I think it’s important to say that of all those journalists imprisoned, none of them are foreigners. Chinese journalists have very clear boundaries set for them as to what they can and can’t do. Some of them are obviously more crusading than others, [for example] Nanfang Daily journalists. Esquire Magazine this month is publishing a list of ten NGOs to watch out for including Gongmeng. Maybe they couldn’t change their print before Gongmeng was shut down.
In terms of my own experience, my predecessors here in China were regularly detained by the police and regularly stopped from reporting. In the year I’ve been here, I’ve only been stopped once. That was in Sichuan, in the earthquake zone, where we’d heard that there had been some problems with corruption. We were stopped by the local party secretary and local propaganda bureau. Other than that, nobody has bothered me, nobody has called me, and nobody has told me what I can and cannot do. You know, in some cases the way of controlling the media now is by limiting access to information while feeding information that one would want to be disseminated, rather than the more crude arrest and detain strategy. I will also say that in the year that I’ve been here, things appear to be getting easier for me. I know the general climate is one of tightening, especially internet control. But, in terms of the access that I have been able to get and the travel that I have been able to do, I’ve been allowed to do more work now than I was when I got here. For my colleague in Beijing- and in Beijing you’re more closely monitored I think- but when Peter [Foster] was in Urumqi he was not stopped at any point from doing his job. That’s something to be applauded.

Telegraph reports on the Urumqi riots in Xinjiang garnered an incredible amount of attention. Given China’s original efforts to censor the media and block access to the region, this must have been a challenging assignment. Tell me a little bit about this experience overall and how tools like Twitter and Facebook assisted you.
Well, the first thing to say is that I wasn’t actually in Xinjiang, to my great disappointment. I was in Hangzhou interviewing Alibaba. A lot of people who were picking up my Twitter stream seem to think that I was in Xinjiang, despite the fact that I regularly pointed out that I was passing information on from Peter after speaking with him. It’s incredible how much impact that had. I really didn’t expect when I started to Twitter Peter’s comments that they would be picked up by so many people. I guess that was because, while allowing Western reporters to move freely inside Urumqi, [the government] also cut off all mobile phones and shut down the internet. There really was a dearth of information coming out of the region. There were just a few Twitter streams- Melissa from Al Jazeera and Austin Ramzy- although he didn’t update his as much. There were very few sources of information that you could have which was not government television. Is it a good thing that the Twitter stream was picked up on? I think that it was a symptom of there being a general lack of information rather than anything exceptional in our reporting. In this situation, the government was right to open up access; it meant that the story could be verified a lot more quickly and people realized that the majority of the victims were Han. When Rebiya Khadeer came out and said that there were 400 dead Uighurs, I spoke to Peter and he said “I’ve not seen anything to support that at any of the hospitals I’ve been to.” We were able to put that over Twitter instantly. The key is, will they do the same in cases where the picture is not so clear?

In one article you wrote, “Urumqi Riots Signal Dark Days Ahead,” you stated that you would encourage the authorities to stop censoring the internet. In terms of the Great Firewall, do you foresee any changes in policy by China’s government in the near future? From your perspective, is the overall clampdown increasing or subsiding?
The overall clampdown is definitely increasing. We’re in one of those tightening cycles and I imagine that is because of the upcoming October anniversary- 60 years of Communist Party rule. I think a lot of situations in China are tightening at the moment in anticipation of that anniversary. For me, I don’t understand the firewall because I don’t see the point of blocking a lot of English-language content that Chinese people don’t read and aren’t interested in. At the same time, it is clear that every Chinese internet geek is quite capable of skipping around the firewall two or three steps. I don’t understand why [the government] devotes so many resources to this and what sort of information they are trying to stop. I can totally understand the clampdown against pornography, but I can’t understand why you would close down Facebook or Twitter or anything like that. I know there is a growing number of Chinese people interested in them, but it’s still not as mainstream as other forums in terms of a place where Chinese people can swap information and interact.

Tell me more about the challenges in gaining access overall. As a foreign journalist, is it difficult to get people to talk to you?
You have to ask why people talk to journalists. In some cases, normal people speak to journalists because they have a grievance and they want to get it off their chest and they’re hoping that a little bit of coverage will ease their way in the future. Companies and government officials speak to journalists because they have something to sell. We are a medium for people to transmit their ideas across. In China, nobody has anything to gain from speaking with the foreign media. If you are a peasant and you’re pissed off, speaking with the foreign media could get you severely beaten or imprisoned. If you are a government official, speaking with the foreign media could cost you your job and if you are a company, speaking with the foreign media could severely hamper your prospects in the business world. So, I can understand why people are reluctant to speak to me. In terms of access, the government is clearly going on an approach to try and present itself better overseas and while using its own forums like English-language editions of Global Times and China Daily, but it’s also trying to reach out to foreign organizations to try and sell certain things. The problem we face is that there’s a real culture clash in terms of the reporting that they find acceptable and the type that we find acceptable. A lot of companies and government bodies here in China believe that journalism is them telling us something and us writing it down. The idea that we would ask questions and they would have no control over what finally appeared is a bit distasteful to everyone. Professional PR people in China are a little bit nervous about Chinese heads of industry or government speaking to the media for the reason that the relationship between those people and the Chinese press is very simple. They can say whatever they like with the knowledge that they can pass over a small envelope of money and control what gets printed. If I was a PR professional and I put a Chinese chief exec in a room with a foreign journalist, I’d be petrified that they would say all sorts of things that they shouldn’t and then go on to find that they didn’t have any control over the final product.

Onto a story which some reporters have chosen to avoid: the corruption scandal in N@m1b1@. You were involved in breaking the H^ H@1f3ng story in the Telegraph. Subsequently, several comments relating to this coverage disputed the involvement of H^’s son. Do you feel that those comments are legitimate?
Yes, because we have no idea how involved H^’s son is. My understanding is that H^’s son was promoted out of the company and into the President position of the holding company at some point between last year and this year. At the time that the N@m1b1@ deal was struck and the money was transferred to the N@m1b1@ accounts, it is my understanding that he was still the President then. We don’t know exactly when [H^ H@1f3ng] was promoted, but our sources told us that he was promoted roughly at the same time that the European Union started their investigation earlier this year. In terms of his involvement with the N@m1b1@ deal, I really doubt that he rubber stamped anything and I doubt that he said “ok, let’s barter by giving some money to these low level officials.” It would have been the regional country head who was responsible and indeed the prosecutors in N@m1b1@ have not said that they want to question Mr. H^ as a suspect. They want to question him as a witness.
The N@m1b1@ stuff is interesting but what’s much more interesting from my end is the European Union investigation. You’ve got a huge Chinese company here which is dumping its products across Europe. Especially in markets like Turkey, there’s a great sensitivity about it. The European Union should have its results out very soon in terms of whether it’s engaged in illegal practices or not. Of course, H^ H@1f3ng has distanced himself from that.

Let’s shift to another subject altogether. You’ve very successfully managed to straddle the realms of blogging, social media, and traditional coverage. Given today’s challenges in journalism and media overall, how has your career been impacted by your flexibility and forward-thinking and what advice would you give to reporters who are just starting to embark on their career?
That’s very kind of you to say that I’ve successfully straddled these worlds, but I don’t think it’s true! My blog is not an interesting thing and is usually written at the end of a long day, around 10pm when I’m exhausted and my brain is not working. It is not like Evan Osnos’s blog, which I would say is a really good template for how to do a blog in China. We were told to blog. Twitter was something I discovered myself and has really been an outlet for my frustration. The stories that I’d like to be doing which we can’t find space for in the paper, I flag up on Twitter so at least the information is going out there. Frankly, newspapers used to compete with each other and didn’t publicize others’ work, but I think that’s very childish. I think that what is important is that people in China have access to information, so Twitter is a great tool.
But, I don’t have any particular strategy behind this- it’s all pretty thrown together. The stuff that I put a lot of effort into is my original reporting. If I were to give advice to young reporters…I don’t know…maybe get out of journalism! Isn’t that pretty standard advice? I think most journalists would say that. In terms of how they should manage the media and their output, I would point out that you can’t do everything. I’m trying to do video, twittering, blogging, writing, magazine work. It doesn’t work- there’s not enough time to do it well. I’d say focus on one thing that you are really good at and specialize and you’ll get a good following. If you want to write a really good blog about China like yours, then you’ll get a good following. If you try to do a really good blog, write a lot of articles, edit some video and at the same time try to get out as much as possible and speak to people, it doesn’t really work. You can’t do it all.

Last question: What’s next for you?
I’m not going anywhere until I’ve mastered Mandarin. That’s my number one target. After that, who knows? Maybe I’m not moving anywhere. It’s very difficult to be sure- maybe I’ll get fired. My industry is contracting and my newspaper is cost-cutting all the time. Maybe the number of readers we have in China doesn’t justify the resources that we spend. I’m keeping my head down and trying to focus on one thing at a time.

Malcolm Moore is the Telegraph’s Shanghai Correspondent. For the latest news from China, follow him on Twitter @malcolmmoore.

Interviews CPJ, Interviews, journalism, Link Up Learn More, Malcolm Moore, Shishou, Telegraph, Urumqi, Xinjiang